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A big impact on the course of Turkish foreign policy

Noting that the malicious attack in the city of Idlib will have a great impact on the future course of Turkish foreign policy, International Relations Specialist Dr. Fatih Fuat Tuncer said: “It is not right to make an analysis with clear statements about last night without examining the process after the Sochi summit between Russia and Turkey on September 17, 2018. Turkey needs to prevent the recurrence of the ambush last night by mobilizing the international community and to ensure that Russia and Syria are sanctioned with the support of the international community.”

Asst. Prof. Dr. Fatih Fuat Tuncer and Dr. Hakkı Göker Önen from Istanbul Gelisim University interpreted the malicious attack in Idlib. Tuncer stated that the Sochi Agreement could not go beyond a text full of ambiguous articles for both parties, and said: “According to Article 5 of Agreement, Turkey would remove all the radical terrorist groups in the region on October 15, 2018. According to Article 6, a 15-20 km deep weapon-free zone will be created in Idlib and until 10 October 2018 this zone will be free of tanks and heavy weapons. According to the 8th Article, M4 (Aleppo-Latakia) and M5 (Aleppo-Hama) highways would be opened to traffic to "ensure free movement of local people and goods" until the end of 2018. With this agreement, the Syrian Army postponed the Idlib Operation, which it had been preparing for a long time.”
 
Tuncer continued his speech as follows:
 
“It was seen that the targets in the agreement were not reached until the end of 2018, and on February 2019, a second summit among Iran, Russia and Turkey was held in Sochi, and with the statement made as a result of this summit, it was stated that Article 5 was not fulfilled by Turkey and there is a concern that HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) would increase its power in Idlib.
 
Again, in the 2nd summit, the statement of "Presidents (...) emphasize the strong and constant commitment of the Syrian Arab Republic to sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity" was added. The issue that should be noted here is not "Syria's territorial integrity", but the emphasis on "sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic". We do not recognize the regime, we do not establish direct relationships, but we recognize its sovereignty. Even this emphasis alone justifies the reason why it increased its movements in the region in the past year from February 2019 to February 2020. In other words, Syria, which had delayed the operation planned with the first agreement, would come to the stage with the support of Russia and Iran after the second agreement. Undoubtedly, the Turkey’s reliance on Russia and Iran, and the willingness of taking measures in order to provide a durable political solution to the situation in Syria is of the importance.”

“RUSSIA AND SYRIA ARE TRYING TO BUILD A PUBLIC OPINION USING DISINFORMATION”

Stating that many of our soldiers were martyred by Russia and Syria, Tuncer said: “Especially in recent weeks, it is constantly expressed by Russia and Syria that Turkish actions in the region (not here) doesn’t comply with the agreement. This way it is intended to make public opinion by disinformation. The fact that we are on the opposite poles with Russia on issues outside of Syria undoubtedly affects our position in Syria. However, the fact that the agreement in Sochi was ambiguous from the very beginning and especially the disagreement about who is a terrorist and who is not, prevented the realization of the articles in the agreement.”
 
Emphasizing that Russia and Syria violated the agreement, Asst. Prof. Dr. Fatih Fuat Tuncer from Istanbul Gelisim University said: “As a result of the Syrian Army's aggressive movements in the region with the support of Russia and Iran, 3 million civilians were threatened to be killed in Idlib. The security of these people and the prevention of mass migration were the main aim of the Sochi agreements. Turkey must act to prevent the repetition of the ambush such as it was last night by mobilizing the international community and ensure that Russia and Syria are sanctioned with the support of the international community.”
 
Tuncer continued his speech as follows:
 
“In case of the escalation of the problem, the crisis will go beyond the Turkish-Syrian-Russian triangle and countries of the region together with EU, USA, and China will be negatively affected. Turkey, should behave moderately and manage the process using all diplomatic channels and proceeding with all the actors. For this, all political actors and the media in Turkey is of a great mission.”

DR. HAKKI GÖKER ÖNEN: RUSSIA'S STATEMENTS ARE NOT SATISFACTORY

Mentioning that the recent events should be evaluated in the context of Turkey-Russia and Turkey-US relations, Political Scientist Dr. Hakki Önen Göker, continued as follows:
 
“Although it is said that there are regime forces behind the attack, it is not possible to carry out such a movement here without the knowledge of Russia. The statements made by Russia in this context hours later are not satisfactory anyway. In fact, the deterioration of the relations that have undergone a certain improvement after Astana and Sochi could be caused by the influence of the meetings with Ukraine and Azerbaijan and attitudes towards Libya.  The exchange of ideas about the situation of Crimean Tatar Turks in Ukraine and the TANAP project with Azerbaijan can also be considered as developments that disturbed Russia. This development could lead to a natural convergence between the US and Turkey because the US gave speeches condemning the attack from yesterday.”

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