Gelisim News

“Russia evokes fear of war across the Balkans’’

While Russia's war against Ukraine pursues, Istanbul Gelisim University International Relations Specialist Assoc. Prof. Dr. Fatih Fuat Tuncer reminded us that Russia has positioned itself as the protector of both the historical ties and the Serbians and Orthodox in the Balkans and made statements about the region. Tuncer stated, “Russia may aim to create uneasiness in the West by evoking fear of war to the Balkans, however, a possible war will not be limited; its consequences will profoundly affect the entire world.”

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Fatih Fuat Tuncer, Istanbul Gelisim University (IGU), International Relations Specialist, indicated the following: “The war that Russia started against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, created a great trauma in the West, unlike the 2014 invasion of Crimea. This trauma did not occur within a single day, of course. After the Cold War, the temporary reconciliation between the West and Russia was broken both by the West's expansion in the former Soviet hinterland and the transformation of the former Eastern Bloc countries within NATO and the EU, as well as the desire of Russia to return to its former glory after Putin."

"THE WEST'S 'FAIT ACCOMPLI' HAS SPREAD TO RUSSIA"

Tuncer continued his speech as follows:

"On the other hand, while the Cold War was just over and the 'end of history’ thesis was being produced and the West's irreversible victory was being declared, a new problem arose in the middle of Europe in the 90s: The disintegration of Yugoslavia. The war environment that started in the Balkans caused the optimistic atmosphere in the West to dissipate in a short time. The inability of the West to produce permanent solutions to the war, the blame on concepts such as 'Balkanization' and the fact that the Balkans are 'Southeast Europe', and the problems in the region were swept under the carpet, so to speak.  However, the Dayton Agreement in Bosnia, Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence despite UNSC resolution 1244 (According to this decision, Kosovo is part of Serbia), the West's rapid legitimization of this independence, the problems experienced both with Albanians inside and with Greece and Bulgaria after the independence of Macedonia (today North Macedonia) tell us how many problems there are. What happened in Ukraine today, in Crimea and Georgia, demonstrates that the "'fait accompli" in the West has spread to Russia as well. Despite the presupposition that international relations have a chaotic environment, what is experienced today actually shows that a new situation such as ‘being equal with equals and unequal with unequal’ creates a new area of legitimacy in international relations. This new legitimacy situation seems to affect the Balkans the most.

“IT CAN AFFECT THE WHOLE REGION LIKE A DOMINO”

Tuncer stated, “It is possible that even a small possibility of conflict in the region can affect the whole region like a domino. Russia positions itself as the protector of both historical ties and the Serbs and Orthodox in the Balkans. What is feared is that Russia, which started an invasion claiming to be surrounded through Ukraine, will play the Balkans trump card against the West. In this way, Russia may aim to create uneasiness in the West by evoking its fear of war across the Balkans. However, a possible war will not be limited; its results will profoundly affect the whole world. Such a war will deeply penetrate the EU, which has largely succeeded in establishing its own comfort zone for itself, particularly after the Cold War.”